Caught between conflict and climate crisis

Afghanistan is facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis; the convergence of conflict and climate risks is further exacerbating the population’s food and economic insecurity. On the one hand, the country has been embroiled in an armed conflict for over 40 years, largely driven by regional and global powers competing to extend their influence over a territory of extreme geostrategic importance. On the other, the situation is exacerbated by the effects of climate change, which highlight a further profound injustice: despite having contributed only a small amount to global climate change—the average Afghan produces 0.2 tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year, compared to nearly 16 tons for the average American—Afghanistan is experiencing temperatures rising above the global average.

The country is ranked among the world’s most vulnerable to climate change due to a combination of low adaptive capacity, i.e., the ability to prevent or minimize environmental damage, and high exposure to climate impacts. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), in 2024, more than 500,000 people were displaced by floods, droughts, and other disasters attributable to climate change. Those most exposed to these risks are women, children, and rural communities living in the most remote areas.

The consequences are an acceleration of the social crisis, with further violence, fanaticism, wars over land, water, and resources, as well as mass migration: for over 40 years, millions of Afghans have been on the run.

Nearly 4 million internally displaced persons live in refugee camps, deprived of the most basic services. Recent analyses suggest that an additional 5 million people could be forced to migrate from Afghanistan due to climate-related disasters alone by 2050. Furthermore, due to restrictive policies adopted by Pakistan and Iran toward Afghan refugees in these countries, between 2023 and 2024, more than 3.4 million Afghans returned to or were displaced from Iran and Pakistan, including over 1.5 million in 2024 alone.

Floods and landslides are frequent natural hazards in Afghanistan. Heavy rainfall events have increased by between 10 and 25% over the past 30 years. In 2024, devastating floods hit the country, directly affecting over 160,000 people, destroying thousands of homes, and damaging vast agricultural areas. In May 2024, flash floods hit 23 provinces, damaging more than 9,000 hectares of agricultural land. At the same time, Afghanistan is facing one of the most severe droughts it has ever seen, with 25 of its 34 provinces experiencing severe drought. According to the UN, this risks turning from an episodic event into an annual one by 2030.

Major irrigation systems depend on the amount of snow that falls the previous winter on the Hindu Kush mountains or the central highlands. In the long term, the loss of glaciers could radically compromise the region’s water and hydroelectric supplies. Their shrinking, a common phenomenon across the globe, and rising temperatures are having far more serious consequences for Afghanistan than elsewhere, with desertification affecting over 75% of the country’s total surface area. This means that less than a third of the population has access to clean drinking water; Thousands of children die every year due to contamination and poor sanitation.

Water distribution is also affected by mismanagement and poor infrastructure, considering that only a small percentage of investments in Afghanistan went to the sector during the NATO occupation. At the same time, Taliban bombings and attacks on water systems to terrorize the population have destroyed the irrigation network built by farmers using ancient methods.

The social consequences of this situation are even more serious considering that 80% of the population depends on agriculture for subsistence, and wheat cultivation is highly susceptible to water shortages. For years, these crops have been replaced by opium poppy fields, which are much more drought-resistant and a major source of funding for the Taliban. After the Taliban-imposed cultivation ban, many farmers have been unable to replace opium with sustainable crops. In regions like Helmand, the ban has led to increased poverty and hunger, rather than successful production conversion. Farmers lack access to markets, transportation, refrigeration, and storage for alternative crops; they often lack quality seeds, fertilizers, irrigation, and technical support. Furthermore, in some areas, opium is protected by armed groups linked to the Taliban, and farmers risk retaliation if they switch to other crops.

The interplay of climate change, humanitarian catastrophe, and the lack of governance is pushing people to join the ranks of the Taliban militias and toward radicalization, an increasingly devastating spiral for the country.

Discrimination against women and girls exacerbates their vulnerability: impoverished farmers sell their livestock and marry off their daughters as children in exchange for money to feed the rest of the family or repay debts. Droughts render the land infertile, and floods sweep away homes and assets and reduce agricultural productivity, driving men to migrate to urban areas in search of work. Women make up nearly half of the agricultural workforce in Afghanistan, contributing significantly to food production and food security, but they carry out their work in precarious conditions due to discrimination and the imposition of restrictions by the Taliban.